However, various estimates have issued different scales as well as courses of impacts Barrett, et al Yearly overall migration from Europe has been reported to have doubled since the year whereby it reached almost , in March Immigration from the European Union was said to have boosted the workforce by almost 0.
Such impact assisted in supporting the economic capacity of growing without disturbing the wage growth, inflation and maintaining lower interest rates. If Britain wished to retain full access of the single market, it had to ensure that it maintains the free movement of labor between the Union and the United Kingdom.
However, this may be unlikely to happen since policies are likely to change and restrict the number of the low skilled employees to enter the country and budge towards attraction of highly skilled employees. Such steps would emerge as a headache for the lower wage industrial sectors that largely depend upon the immigrant workers such as agricultural sector.
However, the step may turn to be beneficial for other sectors that experience shortage of the highly skilled workers. According to the trade published official statistics, the European Union is shown to be a destination of almost half of the British Goods exports. Generally, the trade link is large if there is inclusion of countries that trades with the United Kingdom freely since they have a free trade agreement with the EU.
Exporters may be forced to face other additional costs such as process to comply with the European Union rule of origin if being external part of the single market. Conversely, such issues may turn out to be inconveniencing factors that core barriers of trade. Additionally, there are fears that the exporters would remain high and dry.
According to Lisbon Treat, any country that decides to leave the European Union is given two years to negotiate for the withdrawal agreement Dhingra, et al In few decades ago, Brexit would have been a better deal for Britain since the European Union has smaller benefits. However, Brexit effect will have to vary depending with the sector Barrett, et al Brexit may offer Britain essential opportunity whereby it would be allowed to be the broker of its own trade deals with other non-European Union countries.
In general, Britain may be able to have a unilateral free trade agreement. However, potentiality of the outcomes may be variable since the production sectors depend on whether the United Kingdom will agree or fail to agree to be a trading sector with the EU.
According to the commentators, they have expectation that the effects of Brexit on trade aspect may be relatively low. As well, there are certainties that leaving the European Union may turn out as a process of leaving the peripheral sector better in the long run particularly if the country will apply the new freedom in negotiating for the trade agreements with good impact Oliver, Financial service is expected to be the immediate loser after the European Union exit than any other sector in the country.
In the best case where passport rights were reserved, the United Kingdom used to lose its influence on the aspect of single market rules. There are chances that the economy would be hurt in the short run but not a peril. Exit to the European Union would allow the United Kingdom to be able to broker trade deals with other emerging markets that would later pay up dividend to the financial sectors in the long run Barrett, et al Brexit is expected to have limited impact to British productivity.
However, the core process of improvement may be experienced from the increased case in business investments that indicate little relation with political developments Barrett, et al There are anticipations that the European Union regulations would save lot of money for Britain has exaggeration of the actual image since the United Kingdom would have to make decision of implementing some of them. As well, Britain would need to implement the union regulations to ensure that it continues exporting in the single market.
There are concerns on reduced foreign investment after the country voted to leave the European Union. Access to the single market has not been the only reason to why firms opt to invest in the country. There are other advantages associated with investing in the economy which ensures that foreign companies wish to be foothold in Britain. Chances are that Britain would still be haven for direct investment flows despite been outside the EU. However, the country would have to experience a lower period of direct foreign investment since the country has to create new relationships.
In order to analyze the character of the potential outcomes, it is critical to study the way Brexit will affect various economic aspects such as imports, exports, investment sector and others. The paper at hand is aimed at elucidating the advantages and disadvantages of the UK leaving the union from different perspectives.
While analyzing the role of EU for the British economy, it is critical to understand the fact that the former currently regulates almost all the aspects of the British trade. It is also important to note that EU members belong to the customs union, which means they are not imposed by the trade tariffs or customs controls on the products moving inside the EU, as well as a common tariff that refers to goods entering the EU from the outside.
Moreover, the EU performs a representative function in any trade negotiating process. As a result, the EU has a powerful regulatory influence on the entire UK economy, including the public and private sectors. As a result, Brexit is likely to have a serious impact on the UK economy in general. Experts point out, eight key sectors that Brexit is apt to influence:. The key concern resides in the fact that the European Union is now the biggest export market for Great Britain.
In case the UK decides to leave the EU, it will still have a chance to export its goods to such countries as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. The main difference resides in the fact that the country will be deprived of the opportunity to participate in the rules setting that is regulated by the EU single market. Therefore, it will have to act in accordance with the rules that are imposed by the EU.
However, an opposite opinion suggests that Brexit can have some positive outcomes for the British economy. Thus, for example, some experts believe that leaving the Union is likely to encourage the local manufacturers to focus on the collaboration with such countries as China, Brazil and India Giles In other words, Great Britain will receive a chance to open up new export markets. The diagram below represents the prognosis for the market access after Brexit generated by the Global Counsel.
The principle point in the framework of import perspectives resides in the fact that Great Britain currently imports a wide variety of goods from other EU members. Therefore, British analysts have grounds to assume that in the terms of import British membership in the EU is more beneficial for the latter. However, it is necessary to admit that such large scope of the imported goods is mainly determined not by the regulations imposed by the EU but the social demand for foreign goods, for example, German automobiles and French luxury products.
As a result, the main concern of the British is about the possibility of receiving higher tariffs on EU imports in case they decide to leave it. Thus, the majority of the financial analysts claim that the country is likely to have only insignificant difficulties arranging its free trade contract with the EU as soon as it leaves, as the UK has a considerable trade deficit with other Union members Wood As a result, it would be reasonable to assume that the EU is likely to lose more exports profit from Great Britain than vice versa Center for European Reform, From the investment standpoint, the Brexit outcomes are unclear.
At the current point, the UK is rather productive at attracting foreign investors. In fact, it is now of the most preferred investment locations in the modern markets. Statistics shows that the investment from all sources has increased largely throughout the past decades. The question, consequently, arises whether foreign investors will still be willing to contribute to the UK economy if it is not a part of the EU.
Some economists warn that foreign investments are sure to be put off. According to the estimation of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, for instance, overseas direct investment is likely to fall significantly. In the meantime, it is critical to take into account the fact that the UK will be no more restricted by the burdens of the EU regulations. Hence, it will able to develop its trade more efficiently with faster-growing economies — the existing tariffs will be eliminated and the trade agreements signing will be performed without consulting the EU members Wintour Therefore, the principle idea that underpins these reflections is the assumption that the UK currently possesses an economy that is big enough to let the country act as an efficient trade negotiator on its own.
The immigration question in the Brexit framework is, likewise, debatable. According to official statistics, approximately , of EU citizens moved to the UK in A year earlier, this number comprised , people Chu On the one hand, the opportunity to stop huge flows of immigrants might improve the general quality of life of the locals.
In other words, the strain on public services and infrastructure will be significantly refused. Although their proponents do not necessarily insist on reducing immigration, they still firmly believe that the regulation rules should be set by British Government EU referendum Meanwhile, some experts argue that intensive immigration brings considerable economic benefit for Britain as it assists in providing resources for the labour market and increasing the general productivity Chu In other words, despite the fact that the flows of immigrants result in some problems with housing and service provision, the general net effect is positive.
On the one side, in case Great Britain decides to leave the EU, it is likely to save 0. The point is that such regions as Wales and Northern Ireland are currently sustainable beneficiaries of the EU budget — in case the EU cuts its investment, Westminster will have to replace it which will become a significant burden for its economy. Therefore, the Brexit will be most harmful to particular regions because the EU currently performs the funding of the poorest regions — it contributes to their budget supporting the infrastructure, the education and the training.
In case of the exit, Great Britain is apt to solve the problem of replacing the EU structural funds with national regional development programs. Therefore, the outcomes of the British exit for the budget are rather unpredictable. Numerous researchers have made attempts to calculate the financial impact of this decision.
Thus, for example, the economists from the Centre for Economic Performance of London School of Economics and Political Science have worked out two scenarios that are most likely to develop in case of Brexit. Their calculations are represented in the table before. The offered table provides a critical analysis of two perspectives: optimistic and pessimistic.
In the first scenario, a total welfare loss is expected to comprise 1. The analysts point out the fact that non-tariff barriers play a critical role in regulating trade in such service industries like finance and accounting — these are the sectors where the country proves to be a major exporter.
In the second scenario, the total loss grows up to 3.
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